Who Will Go the Distance in 2002?

The Eagles wanted to know the answer to this question in "The Long Run" and I am sure all of us drag racing fans are wondering what driver will come out #1 this year.  So, just like mutual fund companies do, we will look at past performance to try and predict this year's winners.  Of course, make sure you cover your bets with the same statement that mutual funds do: "Past performance isn't always an indicator of current and future performance."

I took the top drivers who have qualified at the first two events.  The stats listed are from 1990 and are comparable from year to year. (Elapsed times and MPH would not be comparable from year to year.)  (For PSB, since there have been no events yet, I just put together the most common qualifiers in the table.  PSB stats are from 1999.)  Here is the key to the headings:

AVERAGES:	ELIMINATIONS:	EVENTS:
QP=Average Qualifying Position,	W=Total Wins	Wins=Total Number of Event Wins
Rds=Average Rounds Advanced per Event	L=Total Losses	R/U=Total Number of Event Runner Ups
	Win %=Overall Winning Percentage
QUALIFYING:
Tot=Total Number of Event Qualified=Total Number 1 Qualifying Positions
Yr=Unique Number of Years Driver Qualified for at Least One Event
# 1's=Total Number 1 Qualifying Positions,
Top=Total Number of Times in Top Half of Qualifying Field
Bot=Total Number of Times in Bottom Half of Qualifying Field
TYPE OF WIN:
Good=% of Wins Driver Won Because They Outran Opponent but neither aborted
Abrt=% of Wins Driver Won Because both Drivers or one Driver Aborted a Run
Hsht=% of Wins Driver Won on a Holeshot
Rdlt=% of Wins Driver Won Because Opponent Redlighted

Unique Events: 30
Total Drivers: 12	Averages		Eliminations			Qualifying					Events		Type of Win
Driver	QP	Rds	W	L	Win %	Tot	Yr	# 1's	Top	Bot	Wins	R/U	Good	Abrt	Hsht	Rdlt
BERNSTEIN	6.1	2.4	355	207	63.2%	238	12	23	178	60	31	26	43%	47%	6%	4%
COWIN	9.5	1.6	15	27	35.7%	27	3	0	12	15	0	2	40%	47%	7%	7%
DIXON	6.2	2.4	219	132	62.4%	148	7	12	104	44	16	17	44%	48%	3%	5%
GRUBNIC	9.9	1.4	32	73	30.5%	73	5	1	23	50	0	2	41%	47%	3%	9%
HARTMAN	12.0	1.3	15	56	21.1%	56	6	0	4	52	0	0	27%	60%	7%	7%
HERBERT	9.6	1.7	106	138	43.4%	145	10	0	63	82	6	6	25%	62%	8%	5%
KALITTA, D	6.2	2.3	120	81	59.7%	89	4	4	67	22	8	12	38%	53%	5%	4%
LAMPUS	10.4	1.4	12	28	30.0%	28	4	0	9	19	0	0	25%	75%	0%	0%
MCCLENATHAN	5.4	2.4	283	161	63.7%	188	10	26	151	37	26	12	45%	45%	5%	5%
RUSSELL	6.5	2.4	36	22	62.1%	24	1	0	19	5	2	5	53%	42%	0%	6%
SCHUMACHER	8.2	2.2	122	94	56.5%	99	6	3	54	45	5	15	34%	61%	2%	2%
SMITH, J	13.7	1.2	2	12	14.3%	12	2	0	0	12	0	0	0%	100%	0%	0%

 

Unique Events: 30
Total Drivers: 15	Averages		Eliminations			Qualifying					Events		Type of Win
Driver	QP	Rds	W	L	Win %	Tot	Yr	# 1's	Top	Bot	Wins	R/U	Good	Abrt	Hsht	Rdlt
BAZEMORE	7.9	1.9	201	193	51.0%	207	12	18	110	97	10	15	36%	53%	4%	6%
CANNON	9.0	1.7	41	60	40.6%	60	3	0	28	32	0	1	24%	71%	2%	2%
CAPPS	6.5	2.3	147	96	60.5%	107	5	6	77	30	11	12	37%	52%	5%	6%
CREASY	13.5	1.1	5	36	12.2%	36	5	0	0	36	0	0	40%	60%	0%	0%
DENSHAM	10.7	1.4	85	183	31.7%	188	12	1	51	137	2	6	19%	71%	5%	6%
FORCE	2.8	3.2	625	149	80.7%	242	12	97	235	7	93	41	41%	53%	2%	4%
GILBERTSON	12.9	1.5	27	48	36.0%	49	4	0	2	47	1	2	19%	52%	22%	7%
GRAY	11.6	1.6	12	21	36.4%	21	2	0	4	17	0	0	25%	67%	8%	0%
HOFMANN	8.0	2.0	230	202	53.2%	217	12	8	127	90	15	17	42%	51%	3%	4%
JOHNSON	6.6	1.9	41	39	51.2%	42	3	4	32	10	3	3	41%	51%	2%	5%
PEDREGON, C	4.7	2.5	245	125	66.2%	147	9	29	123	24	22	20	43%	50%	4%	3%
PEDREGON, T	5.8	2.4	207	127	62.0%	141	7	10	112	29	14	18	40%	52%	6%	3%
SKUZA	8.3	1.7	121	163	42.6%	165	9	3	91	74	2	10	36%	55%	3%	6%
TOLIVER	8.6	1.8	54	64	45.8%	67	4	2	33	34	3	5	48%	50%	2%	0%
WORSHAM	9.4	1.8	164	176	48.2%	184	12	2	76	108	7	6	33%	57%	7%	3%

 

Unique Events: 30
Total Drivers: 18	Averages		Eliminations			Qualifying					Events		Type of Win
Driver	QP	Rds	W	L	Win %	Tot	Yr	# 1's	Top	Bot	Wins	R/U	Good	Abrt	Hsht	Rdlt
ALDERMAN	6.5	2.6	210	95	68.9%	119	9	22	76	43	24	17	64%	21%	7%	8%
ALLEN	8.1	1.7	134	171	43.9%	175	12	8	95	80	4	7	55%	17%	19%	9%
ANDERSON	10.3	1.9	37	36	50.7%	38	4	1	11	27	2	4	51%	14%	30%	5%
COUGHLIN, J	7.9	2.5	189	88	68.2%	111	8	6	63	48	23	9	53%	19%	21%	7%
COUGHLIN, T	9.0	1.8	67	79	45.9%	80	5	1	41	39	1	8	45%	27%	21%	7%
EDWARDS	8.4	2.1	108	83	56.5%	92	6	5	45	47	9	10	56%	13%	23%	8%
GAINES	11.2	1.6	29	42	40.8%	44	5	0	9	35	2	2	38%	34%	17%	10%
JOHNSON, A	10.2	1.6	31	47	39.7%	48	6	0	18	30	1	2	39%	23%	35%	3%
JOHNSON, K	5.3	2.4	273	158	63.3%	180	9	20	147	33	22	16	64%	15%	12%	8%
JOHNSON, W	2.9	2.8	505	174	74.4%	241	12	103	228	13	67	31	73%	15%	3%	9%
KRISHER	7.4	1.6	53	74	41.7%	77	5	5	48	29	3	3	74%	11%	11%	4%
MARNELL	8.7	1.6	64	109	37.0%	110	8	2	55	55	1	0	36%	27%	28%	9%
MARTINO	9.8	1.7	79	97	44.9%	101	6	1	36	65	4	7	44%	18%	25%	13%
MORGAN	8.6	1.9	160	157	50.5%	164	12	2	87	77	7	12	50%	18%	17%	15%
OSBORNE	9.6	1.7	80	108	42.6%	111	9	8	40	71	3	8	39%	20%	25%	16%
PAWUK	8.1	1.8	178	203	46.7%	209	12	4	124	85	6	14	57%	22%	13%	7%
STEVENS	8.3	2.0	67	62	51.9%	66	4	1	32	34	4	3	52%	28%	13%	6%
YATES, JIM	6.3	2.3	313	192	62.0%	215	12	21	155	60	23	29	64%	19%	10%	8%

 

Unique Events:30
Total Drivers: 22	Averages		Eliminations			Qualifying					Events		Type of Win
Driver	QP	Rds	W	L	Win %	Tot	Yr	# 1's	Top	Bot	Wins	R/U	Good	Abrt	Hsht	Rdlt
AYERS, B	12.8	1.1	1	19	5.0%	19	2	0	0	19	0	0	0%	0%	0%	100%
AYERS, R	12.5	1.1	3	35	7.9%	35	3	0	1	34	0	0	67%	0%	33%	0%
BERRY	10.6	1.2	3	19	13.6%	19	2	0	6	13	0	0	0%	33%	0%	67%
BROWN	3.3	2.7	82	33	71.3%	42	3	6	42	0	9	5	63%	9%	5%	23%
CAMARENA	13.2	1.2	2	13	13.3%	13	2	0	0	13	0	0	50%	0%	0%	50%
COOK	9.8	1.3	4	14	22.2%	14	2	0	3	11	0	0	50%	0%	0%	50%
DELONG	14.0	1.0	0	16	0.0%	16	3	0	0	16	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%
DESANTIS	11.9	1.3	7	27	20.6%	27	3	0	3	24	0	0	43%	43%	14%	0%
GANN	7.5	2.1	29	25	53.7%	26	2	0	19	7	1	3	59%	17%	3%	21%
HALE	12.2	1.2	3	20	13.0%	20	3	0	3	17	0	0	100%	0%	0%	0%
HINES	2.3	2.9	87	34	71.9%	42	3	17	42	0	8	6	78%	13%	2%	7%
JOHNSON	9.7	1.6	22	40	35.5%	40	3	0	12	28	0	2	50%	23%	14%	14%
MARKHAM	14.6	1.2	2	11	15.4%	11	2	0	0	11	0	0	100%	0%	0%	0%
MULLEN	5.5	2.6	47	26	64.4%	28	2	2	25	3	2	5	55%	6%	13%	26%
REUTER	13.9	1.1	1	14	6.7%	14	3	0	0	14	0	0	0%	0%	100%	0%
SAVOIE	2.2	3.2	111	25	81.6%	42	3	17	42	0	17	6	68%	9%	2%	22%
SCALI	7.1	1.9	28	32	46.7%	32	3	0	23	9	0	2	61%	21%	7%	11%
SHOWERS	10.2	1.5	14	26	35.0%	26	2	0	10	16	0	0	64%	7%	7%	21%
SMITH, J	5.9	2.2	20	17	54.1%	17	2	0	14	3	0	2	50%	35%	5%	10%
TONGLET, GT	6.4	2.4	21	13	61.8%	14	1	0	11	3	1	2	57%	24%	10%	10%
TREBLE	6.5	2.2	53	41	56.4%	42	3	0	35	7	1	4	57%	15%	8%	21%
UNDERDAHL	9.9	1.8	18	23	43.9%	23	3	0	9	14	0	1	56%	6%	17%	22%

Stat Trivia:

Have you been paying attention to the Pro Stock stats?  WOW!!  Out of the first 60 elimination runs, all but W.J.'s aborted run in the final at Phoenix.  Also the first non 6 second run as well.  Out of those 60 runs, 42 have been in the 6.8's.  Pro Stock is shaping up to be a very competitive and huge statistical increase.  

Here's your trivia question...George Marnell came from the 16th position to win Pomona.  How many times in each Pro class has a driver qualified 16th and won the event?

Once in Top Fuel - Mike Dunn 1993 Fall Dallas Event.

3 times in Funny Car - K.C. Spurlock 1990 Winternationals, Tom Hoover 1997 Columbus, and Bob Gilbertson 2000 Spring Houston event .

3 times in Pro Stock - Mike Edwards 1999 Fall Topeka, Jeg 2000 Indy, and Marnell 2002 Winternationals.

Since 1999 no one PSB has done this.

Review more 2001 season ending stats, including stats for all NHRA qualifying drivers, Top 12, and National Events at Jim's DragStats web site: http://home.att.net/~jhawkins/dragstats.htm

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