How Can Ya Pick a Winnah
If Ya Can't Tuna Fish?

5/7/03

hose of you new to viewing Drag Racing Online may wonder why my column is called "Lenny's Line." Especially since the content as of late has been mostly a steady diet of political blather concerning various issues (or non-issues, if you prefer) concerning how national event drag racing is conducted. Wasn't always so, my friends. As originally concocted, LL was to be primarily an exercise in Tricky Tipster-style odds-making on who had the best shot of winning the Pro categories at NHRA tour events. Not to mention taking the frequent jab at those racers who needed a poke in the ribs, so to speak.

All well and good, but even the most fevered oddsmaker gets stale on a steady diet of laying the morning line. Throw in the fact that race fans couldn't make a legal bet on NHRA drag racing at the time this column came into being, and one might understand my slide into a very-beyond-the-Beltway career of 1320 commentary.

But things have changed, as nowadays it is very possible to bet on NHRA drag racing at Las Vegas casinos. All ya gotta do is book the plane trip and throw down the Benjamins or whatever you are willing to risk. And if you are so inclined, it might be a good idea to understand what a betting line is, and how the odds are arrived at. Knowing that, you might be able to spot a good bet when you see one, and pull the trigger on a wager! Enough blather, and on to Lesson Number One.

And that is, what is the purpose of the Morning Line. No, it's not to pick the winner. The real purpose of the ML is to stimulate betting action. If every betting line started Larry Dixon Jr. at even money ($2.00 won for $2.00 wagered), well, what the hell fun would that be? Bettors are looking for a thrill, not to manage a stock portfolio! So, the oddsmakers make LD's starting point 3-1. Bet two, get back eight. Much, much better, wouldn't you agree? All kidding aside, the line, properly laid, gives all fans a reason to support their favorite racer. Or maybe you are one of those characters who likes to bet against certain guys, if you know what I mean. No problem, the line is the line -- it cares not what your motivation really is. It just seeks to build the profit/loss margin for the house.

Okay, now that you know the line exists to get into your wallet, you need to know how to spot a "good" bet. Or maybe we should start with the "bad" side of things. Let's skip the scholarly stuff and cut right to the heart, and give an example of a bad bet. Right now, John Force is a bad bet. No matter what odds you could get right now, it wouldn't be high enough to justify laying the dollars down on JF. Based on how things are going, there are just too many other guys who are going better, at this moment. Horse players call this deal an "underlay" -- they also call it a money-burner, and a lot of other bad things. Can John win E-town? Sure he can, and if he does his faithful will be rewarded handsomely. Now, if Da Champ makes a final round soon, and the odds remain a bit on the high side, then he becomes an "overlay." Can you say "value," kids? Can you say, "Bet 'em up?"

I am not going to put you through the agony of explaining Exactas or Trifectas or Superfectas, or the arcane aspects of dutching or any of that old stuff. If you actually get around to making a bet, the teller can explain all of that while he relieves you of your green. It's the American way, after all. Knowledge costs money, you know. So, instead of a strategy session, I'll give you my morning line for the Top Five in the Top Three pro categories and Pro Mod for the NHRA Englishtown stop.

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